Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 98967.297637 104296.153037 109618.937386 115331.062188 121283.847203 127300.953674 133839.149253
2025-08-10 89858.203233 97992.383382 106339.559797 115534.797629 125368.966073 135560.217434 146908.856547
2025-08-17 83208.749293 93246.588869 103769.699068 115602.016823 128513.215477 142151.511248 157624.231012
2025-08-24 78915.299367 90465.850000 102791.313478 116885.891025 132519.661894 149291.341761 168605.719791
2025-08-31 74510.565061 87162.586892 100877.514301 116795.831798 134707.495389 154183.053691 176903.000395
2025-09-07 71796.897010 85504.145617 100570.297539 118285.884213 138470.049382 160673.261617 186864.795313
2025-09-14 69148.771795 83727.184303 99957.309602 119270.957454 141527.989734 166271.546233 195754.655365
2025-09-21 66296.269857 81547.716726 98734.243544 119417.518054 143508.780190 170556.812677 203088.120224
2025-09-28 63744.510341 79584.355216 97638.939231 119597.326665 145429.799019 174699.439998 210207.983075
2025-10-05 62382.460369 78943.072038 98015.370784 121433.118599 149229.703407 180983.454954 219802.838782
2025-10-12 60962.268770 78154.078245 98150.538884 122926.878916 152587.021124 186733.147141 228781.228209
2025-10-19 59288.446733 76981.084453 97760.355124 123735.025420 155086.819505 191451.515864 236545.443887
2025-10-26 57318.644800 75395.423612 96836.140701 123878.628093 156791.786003 195255.918699 243288.492767
2025-11-02 55613.776128 74076.479256 96184.118334 124308.586720 158812.033536 199425.133768 250480.078780
2025-11-09 53860.708475 72632.712425 95321.487685 124428.992207 160416.303834 203072.275275 257042.087822
2025-11-16 52831.337961 72059.437908 95499.653204 125803.585701 163535.997188 208544.818409 265825.401052
2025-11-23 51162.246141 70612.581477 94535.534394 125710.548066 164811.251210 211756.683118 271860.514655
2025-11-30 50370.389353 70262.617082 94925.120613 127293.288935 168154.825137 217498.859305 281009.611013
2025-12-07 49379.182503 69617.059776 94909.002121 128339.264496 170814.425417 222401.574217 289148.268738
2025-12-14 48041.610117 68474.483239 94219.313509 128494.889385 172330.283333 225879.363960 295532.632849
2025-12-21 46785.024218 67399.906928 93581.980395 128685.784177 173866.867401 229370.890510 301937.514071
2025-12-28 46342.241366 67392.378970 94314.974615 130634.512157 177640.449650 235669.377596 311875.041683
2026-01-04 45770.038700 67189.140129 94775.757222 132219.929295 180949.265546 241397.998560 321131.141172